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Advisory - Tropical System Grace

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022022
800 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2022

...DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY AND STRENGTHEN WHILE
APPROACHING NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 73.3W
ABOUT 710 MI...1140 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM 
WARNING FOR THE COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM THE PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA 
WESTWARD TO THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER INCLUDING THE GULF OF 
VENEZUELA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM 
WARNING FOR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA 
BORDER WESTWARD TO SANTA MARTA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER TO LAGUNA DE PERLAS NICARAGUA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES COLOMBIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LIMON COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER
* NORTH OF LAGUNA DE PERLAS TO SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG BOTH THE CARIBBEAN AND PACIFIC COASTS OF
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), THE DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE
12.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST NEAR 20 MPH (31 KM/H), AND THIS FAST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.  SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WITH A
CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, CROSS SOUTHERN NICARAGUA OR
NORTHERN COSTA RICA FRIDAY NIGHT, AND EMERGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES CENTRAL AMERICA.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WHILE
THE SYSTEM CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA, BUT RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST 
ON SATURDAY ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN.

CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND THE DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WHILE SLOWING DOWN OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS... HIGH...90 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 5 DAYS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB (29.80 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO CAN BE FOUND IN THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT2 AND WMO
HEADER WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA THROUGH THIS
MORNING, THEN ACROSS NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA BY FRIDAY. THE
FOLLOWING STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED:

NORTHERN COLOMBIA: 3 TO 5 INCHES.

NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA: 4 TO 8 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS
AROUND 12 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING.

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH 
AREA IN NICARAGUA LATE FRIDAY, AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREAS IN NICARAGUA AND
COSTA RICA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.  TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE COLOMBIAN ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES
AND PROVIDENCIA ON FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE: STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Storm Grace
Latitude 12.0N
Longitude 73.3W
Maximum Winds 40 MPH
Pressure 1009 MB
Direction/Speed W @ 20 MPH

Last Updated: 800 AM EDT



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